Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#96
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#189
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 21.0% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 2.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 13.1
.500 or above 85.4% 86.8% 59.4%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 87.6% 72.9%
Conference Champion 22.7% 23.3% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 2.7%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
First Round19.8% 20.3% 10.3%
Second Round5.0% 5.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 36 - 38 - 10
Quad 412 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 325   N.C. A&T W 76-58 95%    
  Nov 08, 2019 4   @ Kansas L 64-82 5%    
  Nov 15, 2019 279   Montana St. W 82-68 90%    
  Nov 16, 2019 310   Tennessee Tech W 76-60 93%    
  Nov 18, 2019 212   Appalachian St. W 80-70 82%    
  Nov 24, 2019 300   VMI W 82-67 91%    
  Nov 30, 2019 54   @ Georgetown L 73-81 23%    
  Dec 04, 2019 320   Kennesaw St. W 79-62 93%    
  Dec 07, 2019 134   @ Radford L 66-67 50%    
  Dec 15, 2019 22   North Carolina St. L 74-79 32%    
  Dec 18, 2019 84   @ Vermont L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 21, 2019 133   Northern Kentucky W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 01, 2020 204   Mercer W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 04, 2020 107   @ Wofford L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 08, 2020 71   East Tennessee St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 11, 2020 102   @ Furman L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 15, 2020 306   @ The Citadel W 85-75 79%    
  Jan 18, 2020 235   Chattanooga W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 25, 2020 142   @ Samford W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 29, 2020 215   @ Western Carolina W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 01, 2020 71   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 05, 2020 306   The Citadel W 88-72 91%    
  Feb 09, 2020 142   Samford W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 12, 2020 215   Western Carolina W 79-68 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 204   @ Mercer W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 19, 2020 107   Wofford W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 22, 2020 300   @ VMI W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 26, 2020 102   Furman W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 29, 2020 235   @ Chattanooga W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.4 6.5 5.7 3.1 1.0 22.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.8 6.4 2.8 0.5 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 6.7 4.0 1.1 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.3 5.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.4 7.3 10.2 11.9 13.1 12.8 11.9 9.4 6.2 3.1 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 92.1% 5.7    4.7 1.0 0.0
15-3 69.4% 6.5    4.0 2.3 0.3
14-4 37.3% 4.4    1.6 2.1 0.7 0.1
13-5 12.8% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 14.7 6.3 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 89.4% 67.1% 22.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 67.7%
17-1 3.1% 71.8% 55.7% 16.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 36.4%
16-2 6.2% 56.1% 45.6% 10.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.7 19.2%
15-3 9.4% 40.0% 34.5% 5.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.6 8.5%
14-4 11.9% 27.8% 26.0% 1.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.6 2.4%
13-5 12.8% 21.2% 20.9% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.4%
12-6 13.1% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.2 0.0%
11-7 11.9% 9.0% 9.0% 0.1% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.8 0.1%
10-8 10.2% 5.4% 5.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.6
9-9 7.3% 5.0% 5.0% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
8-10 5.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
7-11 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Total 100% 20.5% 18.3% 2.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.7 5.8 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.2 79.5 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 3.1 53.1 43.8